Jun 05
2007

China invests $ 3 billion in Blackstone Group - Part II

Posted by klmukesh in InvestmentIndiaFX ReservesChinaBlackstone

The reported total amount of funds that the Chinese state agency plans to invest varies between $200 billion and $400 billion. If we assume that they will invest about $300 billion, combined with a 1:1 leverage, they would have a whopping $600 billion at their disposal for investment. Some of the other instances of sovereign wealth funds (SWF) -

Norway - $300 billion

Abu Dhabi - $875 billion

 

Russia - $50 billion .... All of which add up rather quickly into a trillion $ +! With the size of the reserves continuing to balloon, the US $ continuing to be relatively weak, the treasury and bond yields continuing to be low, it is reasonable to expect the SWFs invest more in the stock markets. SWFs will surely impact markets in ways that have not been experienced before.  Traditionally, Central banks policies are geared to contain normal inflation as well as asset inflation. This would lead them to invest outside of their own markets.

 

The search for higher yields would lead them to emerging markets such as India as well as make investments in markets that are not yet "emerging" like Sudan.  In general, this bodes well for the world economy. It would be interesting to see whether the Chinese direct investment in Africa would be more effective than the last 5 decades of aid by the financial institutions such as World Bank.

 

As far as Blackstone group is concerned, one would suspect that there would be some sort of "quid pro quo".  In exchange for the 10% equity, they would perhaps get access to the Chinese deals. Of course, the Chinese get to learn the tricks of the trade of private equity as well in the process.

 

Should India with its $200+ billion kitty take a similar route?  It may be better for India to simply use a part of the war chest for shoring up its infrastructure - ports, electricity, roads using dollar denominated fixed price contracts. In a way this would be a natural hedge against a declining dollar. Assuming marginal propensity to consume in India is about 0.7, if $50 billion is used as infrastructure investment, the impact to the GDP in the long run could be as high as $160 billion - a far better outcome than investing in overseas equity markets.




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