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Aug 07
2007
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India's Future: A scenario planning approachPosted by Bipin in Untagged |
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The news coming out of India as regards its economic development has been positive for past two years or more.The economic indicators look impressive compared to what they used to be before. Various comparisons are being made between India and China. Economists have been busy playing out projections over next ten, fifteen and even forty years. It is not too difficult to find articles published in reputed international magazines which suggest that India and China are going to be two economic superpowers by 2050. Behind these projections are plenty of assumptions. Many people believe that the process of economic development is irreversible. The current rate of GDP growth of 9.4% looks very attractive. Implicitly people believe that this GDP growth rate will be in that ball park for years to come.
There is of course more reason to be skeptical of many of these projections. Those who know India are well aware of the pitfalls. As much as one wishes that the projections come true, there is a feeling of apprehension that lot could go wrong. Would India stumble? Does India have the ability to sustain the economic development for next two decades or more? What possibly could go wrong? While India charts its course towards economic development, other countries are not keeping quite either. There is plenty of interdependence between India and what happens on the global economic front. Not too much in distant past we had seen the Asian Tigers sprint way ahead of India and China.
We decided to use the scenario planning approach to play out how India's future would unfold. For that we identified the following major areas. Each of these major areas have sub-categories. Over next several weeks we shall be developing scenarios based on combination of progress in each of these major areas. Let's see what these scenarios tell us.
The major areas are as follows.
I. POLICY
1. De-regulate
2. Privatize
3. Compete
4. Special Economic Zones
II. PEOPLE
1. Cultural Implications
2. Urban versus Rural development
3. Mom and Pop businesses versus Corporations
4. Quality of Life
5. Security
6. Religion
7. Demographics
III.INFRASTRUCTURE
1. Highways
2. Seaports & Airports
3. Power
4. Water
5. Essential Commodities: Steel, Cement
IV. INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
1. Research & Development
2. WTO
V. BRANDING
1. Market
2. Communicate
VI. OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE
1. Supply Chain
2. Quality
3. Safety
VII. ECONOMY
1. Foreign investments
2. GDP Growth
3. Current Account
4. Currency
5. Agriculture Output
VIII. SECTORS
1. Knowledge Services
2. Tourism (Medical Tourism, Heritage Tourism)
3. Manufacturing
4. IT & ITeS
5. BPO
IX. EDUCATION
1. Supply & Demand
2. Quality
X. GLOBAL CONTEXT
1. Terrorism
2. Offshoring
3. Outsourcing
4. Global Trade: Doha Round
5. Intellectual Property Protection
6. Energy Supply and Demand: Crude Oil Price, Natural Gas
7. Global Warming, Climate Change, Environmental Protection
8. Wars, turmoil
9. Natural disasters
Needless to say all these major areas are interlinked. The complexity is horrendous. Nevertheless we shall make our own feeble attempt to create the scenarios.
Stay tuned!
There is of course more reason to be skeptical of many of these projections. Those who know India are well aware of the pitfalls. As much as one wishes that the projections come true, there is a feeling of apprehension that lot could go wrong. Would India stumble? Does India have the ability to sustain the economic development for next two decades or more? What possibly could go wrong? While India charts its course towards economic development, other countries are not keeping quite either. There is plenty of interdependence between India and what happens on the global economic front. Not too much in distant past we had seen the Asian Tigers sprint way ahead of India and China.
We decided to use the scenario planning approach to play out how India's future would unfold. For that we identified the following major areas. Each of these major areas have sub-categories. Over next several weeks we shall be developing scenarios based on combination of progress in each of these major areas. Let's see what these scenarios tell us.
The major areas are as follows.
I. POLICY
1. De-regulate
2. Privatize
3. Compete
4. Special Economic Zones
II. PEOPLE
1. Cultural Implications
2. Urban versus Rural development
3. Mom and Pop businesses versus Corporations
4. Quality of Life
5. Security
6. Religion
7. Demographics
III.INFRASTRUCTURE
1. Highways
2. Seaports & Airports
3. Power
4. Water
5. Essential Commodities: Steel, Cement
IV. INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
1. Research & Development
2. WTO
V. BRANDING
1. Market
2. Communicate
VI. OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE
1. Supply Chain
2. Quality
3. Safety
VII. ECONOMY
1. Foreign investments
2. GDP Growth
3. Current Account
4. Currency
5. Agriculture Output
VIII. SECTORS
1. Knowledge Services
2. Tourism (Medical Tourism, Heritage Tourism)
3. Manufacturing
4. IT & ITeS
5. BPO
IX. EDUCATION
1. Supply & Demand
2. Quality
X. GLOBAL CONTEXT
1. Terrorism
2. Offshoring
3. Outsourcing
4. Global Trade: Doha Round
5. Intellectual Property Protection
6. Energy Supply and Demand: Crude Oil Price, Natural Gas
7. Global Warming, Climate Change, Environmental Protection
8. Wars, turmoil
9. Natural disasters
Needless to say all these major areas are interlinked. The complexity is horrendous. Nevertheless we shall make our own feeble attempt to create the scenarios.
Stay tuned!
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